Mapping Human Displacement Due to Climate Change
climate change, earth observation, policy, spatial analysis, water June 11th, 2009
Climate change and rising sea levels threaten entire nations, leading to mass migrations from the countryside to cities with estimates of 200 million people displaced by 2050. Lack of rainfall in other regions will cause long-term droughts and devastate food production. This pending global crisis is the focus of a new report titled, “In Search of Shelter,” that was presented yesterday in Bonn, Germany at the UN Climate talks by the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University along with the United Nations University and CARE International.
The report focuses on several regions that will be hard hit by these changes. The low-lying areas of South Asia will be affected by rising sea levels, and the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas will create flooding and lead to long-term changes in the flow of water in major rivers in the region. Central Mexico could see rainfall declines of up to 50 percent by 2080.
“Policy decisions made today will determine whether migration becomes a matter of choice amongst a range of adaptation options, or merely a matter of survival due to a collective failure by the international community to provide better alternatives.”
The report urges a global response rather than a series of local crises. Assisting and protecting displaced populations in largely poor countries will fall on the international community in order to ensure political stability.
You can download the full report here.
Posts
June 11th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
[...] clipped from vector1media.com [...]
June 12th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
This report seems to indicate at the beginning that there is already a measurable effect on normal migration patterns due to global warming, but doesn’t really every get to saying what that effect is and how they measure it.
In one particular case it talks about people who have migrated from the Maldives, but it’s because they are afraid that the islands will flood eventually, not because of any current flooding.
Wondering if there’s any maps or data that tell us what migration has occurred or been measurably influenced by climate warming or ocean level rise.
Much scrutiny would have to be done on a study of current migration patterns that suggest that ocean level rise and global warming were contributing to that in a significant way (beyond migration due to fear of possible catastrophe). Migration has a pretty complex array of causes, as the report states as well.
Now climate has a tendency to change whether or not humans have a significant effect on the process or not. The report is a pretty good effort to see what would happen under certain scenarios. And the maps produced are pretty cool too.
Caveat: I had a disagreement with you months ago about the level of ocean rise in the Indian Ocean. Specifically around the Maldives. You pointed me to some data regarding the rise of ocean levels, and I confess that when I noticed that it was fairly detailed raw data, my work schedule forced me away from looking at it very closely.
So let’s say that I can’t deny the data you provided points to ocean level rise at some point in the recent past. My point in my comment was that people smarter than I, with expertise in Oceanography, looked at data from that region and came to different conclusions. And we should never consider an issue closed for debate when people with expertise in the arena in question come to different conclusions.
I left that conversation months ago with the thought that you might think I was a prat who didn’t trust science, so more on where I’m coming from. I’m generally open to discussion about global climate change. No matter how much people want to see the world through the lens of a static point in time, physical conditions are always changing. Therefore study about the effects of change is always necessary.
I’m also open to discussion on the human effects on global climate systems. However, good science needs debate, strict methodology and peer review. It doesn’t help the cause of those who promote the science behind our affect on climate change to have people like Al Gore leading the charge. As reasonable opponents of any theory of human-caused components should be diligent about refuting wacky arguments from the fringe of their side, so should proponents. Opponents and proponents need to accept and discuss findings that support and refute their position without getting defensive. For instance opponents of warming need to address why changes have been coming fairly dramatically lately and proponents need to address findings by NASA that global temperatures have flat-lined in the last few years.
Having said all that, as I often say to friends, I can completely discount the theory that we contribute to global warming and still come up with a dozen solid reasons for supporting recycling, reducing, reusing, restricting emissions and regulating oil consumption. I’d really like not to snort tailpipe when biking to work.
November 15th, 2009 at 5:56 am
In India,the Ichhmati river bank also faces the same problem. It is a tributary of the river Ganga. In Bashirhat (w.Bengal)region it demolishes tons and tons of soil every year. I was there in the month of October 2009, and watched it. Very awful condition of the river bank. I saw Ichhmati in a very aggressive mood.If this process goes on then the adjacent area will face complete disaster.